[[{“value”:”It seems this ought to happen soon, though it is not (yet) a major news item. Iranian air defenses are severely disrupted, though not forever. The “Hezbollah counterattack” has been more than neutralized, and no alternative deterrent has been put in its place. That too may be temporary. Israeli public opinion is still close in
The post When will Israel attack Iranian nuclear facilities? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.”}]]
It seems this ought to happen soon, though it is not (yet) a major news item. Iranian air defenses are severely disrupted, though not forever. The “Hezbollah counterattack” has been more than neutralized, and no alternative deterrent has been put in its place. That too may be temporary. Israeli public opinion is still close in time to October 7, and Netanyahu is not so far from the end of his reign. The countries that will get very mad at Israel for such an attack are already close to maximally mad at Israel. Trump has signaled plenty of support, yet there is no guarantee that will last forever.
Most of all, Iran is getting closer to having a workable nuclear weapon.
I also find it striking how many people discuss the Ukraine negotiations without considering the two issues may be tied to some degree. How much will Putin, if at all, shore up Iran in such a scenario?
Just a reminder that you should not forget about this issue, it could be the most important thing that happens this year.
The post When will Israel attack Iranian nuclear facilities? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
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