Dario Amodei on AI and the optimistic scenario

 [[{“value”:”Here is a longish essay, here is one excerpt: Economists often talk about “factors of production”: things like labor, land, and capital. The phrase “marginal returns to labor/land/capital” captures the idea that in a given situation, a given factor may or may not be the limiting one – for example, an air force needs both
The post Dario Amodei on AI and the optimistic scenario appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.”}]] 

Here is a longish essay, here is one excerpt:

Economists often talk about “factors of production”: things like labor, land, and capital. The phrase “marginal returns to labor/land/capital” captures the idea that in a given situation, a given factor may or may not be the limiting one – for example, an air force needs both planes and pilots, and hiring more pilots doesn’t help much if you’re out of planes. I believe that in the AI age, we should be talking about the marginal returns to intelligence7, and trying to figure out what the other factors are that are complementary to intelligence and that become limiting factors when intelligence is very high. We are not used to thinking in this way—to asking “how much does being smarter help with this task, and on what timescale?”—but it seems like the right way to conceptualize a world with very powerful AI.

I view human imperfections, and current institutional and legal constraints as more binding than Dario does, and thus I think speeds of progress will be lower than he does. But there is much in his essay I agree with.

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