There are not 13,099 Illegal Immigrant Murderers Roaming Free on American Streets

 [[{“value”:”Migrants incarcerated for homicide are considered “non-detained” by ICE when they are in state or federal prisons. When ICE uses the term “non-detained,” they mean not currently detained by ICE. In other words, the migrant murderers included in the letter are overwhelmingly in prison serving their sentences. After they serve their sentences, the government transfers them
The post There are not 13,099 Illegal Immigrant Murderers Roaming Free on American Streets appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.”}]] 

Migrants incarcerated for homicide are considered “non-detained” by ICE when they are in state or federal prisons. When ICE uses the term “non-detained,” they mean not currently detained by ICE. In other words, the migrant murderers included in the letter are overwhelmingly in prison serving their sentences. After they serve their sentences, the government transfers them onto ICE’s docket for removal from the United States.

And that is only part of the mistake in the numbers you may have heard.  Here is more from Alex Nowrasteh:

The third untrue claim is that these 13,099 migrants convicted of homicide committed their crimes recently. Those migrant criminal convictions go back over 40 years or more. Confusion over the period covered by a dataset afflicts the interpretation of other criminal datasets too. If there really were 13,099 migrants convicted for domestic homicides in 2023, then they would have accounted for about 99 percent of all homicide convictions in the U.S. last year despite being about 4 percent of the population. That is obviously not the case because no group of people is criminally overrepresented by a factor of 25 above their share of the population. Even when the 13,099 homicide convictions of migrants are spread out over the entire Biden administration, migrants would have accounted for about one-third of all homicide convictions from 2021 through 2023. That’s obviously not true. The problem comes from erroneously increasing the numerator (the number of homicide convictions) for a single year and decreasing the denominator (the total number of homicide convictions in just one year) rather than spreading out the convictions and the total number of all murders over a 40-plus year period.

As a side observation:

 Illegal immigrants in Texas are about 7.1 percent of the population, but they accounted for just 5 percent of all homicide convictions in 2022.

Here is the whole essay.  Tweetstorm here.  Via Naveen.

The post There are not 13,099 Illegal Immigrant Murderers Roaming Free on American Streets appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

 Current Affairs, Data Source, Law 


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *