[[{“value”:”What if an LLM read all my writing, listened to all my podcast appearances, and perhaps even to some of my private or semi-private conversations, and then placed hundreds of micro-bets for me, updating them as my own thinking evolved? What if LLMs did this for everyone who cares about AI, or any other topic?
The post Dean Ball on AI and prediction markets appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.”}]]
What if an LLM read all my writing, listened to all my podcast appearances, and perhaps even to some of my private or semi-private conversations, and then placed hundreds of micro-bets for me, updating them as my own thinking evolved? What if LLMs did this for everyone who cares about AI, or any other topic? The income I would gain or lose needn’t be significant. If the bets were small, it could be a modest income stream, similar to what most artists get from streaming royalties, or what many mid-sized X accounts receive in revenue sharing. That way, any losses would not be the end of the world for most people. The real value would be the knowledge society could construct.
What if the debate over the capabilities trajectory of AI, for example, was also operationalized in 1000s of prediction markets, thickly traded in micro-bets made on behalf of millions?
And what if other LLMs also surveyed the broader media environment and placed their own bets? If you think of my writing and thinking (or yours) as a kind of one-man intellectual hedge fund, these latter groups would be something like funds of funds.
What if we could simulate financial markets for every question about the future that concerns us? And what if it cost next to nothing to do? What if, after the work of setting it up was complete, all this just carried on each day, in a way that few humans had to devote much time to maintaining or thinking about?
Here is the full piece.
The post Dean Ball on AI and prediction markets appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
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