[[{“value”:”Let’s say you have a production process, and the AIs involved operate at IQ = 160, and the humans operate at IQ = 120. The O-Ring model, as you may know, predicts you end up with a productivity akin to IQ = 120. The model, in short, says a production process is no better than
The post Does the O-Ring model hold for AIs? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.”}]]
Let’s say you have a production process, and the AIs involved operate at IQ = 160, and the humans operate at IQ = 120. The O-Ring model, as you may know, predicts you end up with a productivity akin to IQ = 120. The model, in short, says a production process is no better than its weakest link.
More concretely, it could be the case that the superior insights of the smarter AIs are lost on the people they need to work with. Or overall reliability is lowered by the humans in the production chain. This latter problem is especially important when there is complementarity in the production function, namely that each part has to work well for the whole to work. Many safety problems have that structure.
The overall productivity may end up at a somewhat higher level than IQ = 120, if only because the AIs will work long hours very cheaply. Still, the quality of the final product may be closer to IQ = 120 than you might have wished.
This is another reason why I think AI productivity will spread in the world only slowly.
Sometimes when I read AI commentators I feel they are imagining production processes of AIs only. Eventually, but I do not see that state of affairs as coming anytime soon, if only for legal and regulatory reasons.
Furthermore, those AIs might have some other shortcomings, IQ aside. And an O-Ring logic could apply to those qualities as well, even within the circle of AIs themselves. So if say Claude and the o1 model “work together,” you might end up with the worst of both worlds rather than the best.
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Economics, Uncategorized, Web/Tech
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